EUR/USD Outlook – June 27 – July 1

The complications in the Greek crisis continue weighing on euro dollar, which lost ground to the greenback for a third week in a row. The upcoming week consists of many important indicators towards the rate decision, as well as a critical vote in the Greek parliament. Here is an outlook for the European events, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

There are too many doubts about the passage of the new austerity measures in the Greek parliament. In addition, banking trouble in Italy, one of the core countries, has also joined the problems in the Euro-zone. Where will this stop?

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

1. German  GfK Consumer Climate: Tuesday, 6:00. This survey of 2000 consumers has been sliding down in recent months, after a gradual climb. A drop from 5.5 to 5.4points is expected now.
2. Jean-Claude Trichet talks: Tuesday, 6:45. The president of the ECB will have a chance to speak his mind about the current affairs in Europe, including the “red lights of systemic risk” that are flashing, and the upcoming rate decision, which is expected to consist of a hike.
3. German CPI: Tuesday. The different German states release their consumer price indices separately. Inflation has been much stronger in the first quarter, and it has slowed down significantly since then. Last month’s unchanged value is expected to be followed by a rise of 0.1%, but this can even turn negative with the fall in commodity prices.
4. Greek vote: Tuesday and Wednesday. The Greek parliament will begin voting on Tuesday on the new austerity measures agreed with the EU / IMF delegation. The final vote on the implementation plan will happen on Wednesday. There are worries that some members of the ruling party, PASOK, may defect and join the opposition, as protests in Athens continue. The plan must be approved before Sunday, July 3rd, when the finance ministers of the European Union meet and are expected to release the next tranche of aid. Without it, Greece will run out of money. News before and during the votes will rock the euro.
5. German Retail Sales: Thursday, 6:00. Europe’s powerhouse is expected to post a bigger rise in the volume of sales this time – 0.7%. Last month saw a weak rise of 0.3%.
6. French Consumer Spending: Thursday, 6:45. Europe’s second largest country will likely recover from the past two months of drops. Spending dropped by almost 3% in the past two months. A rise of 1% is expected now.
7. German Unemployment Change: Thursday, 7:55. Germany has been outstanding in the euro-zone, enjoying many months of big drops in the number of unemployed people. But last month was somewhat disappointing – only 8000 people dropped off unemployment. A bigger drop of 17K is expected now. A rise in unemployment will hurt the euro.
8. M3 Money Supply: Thursday, 8:00. This measure of the amount of money in circulation has slowed down last month, after a few months of acceleration. A rise of 2.2% is predicted now, higher than 2% last month. More money means more inflation.
9. CPI Flash Estimate: Thursday, 9:00. The first estimate of inflation for June may prove critical for the rate decision. After many months of rises, the annual pace of inflation unexpectedly dropped to 2.7% in May. A rise back to 2.8% is expected, paving the way for the hike. An unexpected second drop may put doubts in the plan.
10. Final Manufacturing PMI:Friday, 8:00. According to the preliminary release, the manufacturing sector is undergoing a significant slowdown. The PMI for the whole euro-zone dropped to 52 points, already close to the 50 point mark which separates growth and contraction. This will likely be confirmed now.
11. Unemployment Rate: Friday, 9:00. The unemployment rate for the whole continent is quite painful – 9.9%. Spain’s unemployment rate exceeds 20%, while Ireland and Greece also have double digits. This is expected to remain unchanged.

* All times are GMT.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The euro had a roller coaster week that started with a nice rise. It reached 1.4440 before descending. The pair found some support at 1.420 and eventually managed to close above 1.4160, at 1.4186, lower than last week.

Technical levels, from top to bottom:

We start from a line that is becoming more distant: 1.4650 was a peak on the way up, and then switched to significant support. It is a rather far well. Another line of resistance is at 1.4550. It had a pivotal role a few weeks ago, when the euro was trading higher.

Resistance is at 1.4440, which was an important line in the past, and had different roles beforehand.  1.4375 provided support a few weeks ago, and held the pair for a short period of time before the final fall. After being shattered now, its role is minor.

The peak of November 2010 at 1.4282 managed to temporarily cushion the falls and eventually support the pair in the close. It has a minor role now.  1.4160 was a swing high in the past, and also a swing low a few weeks ago, before the big surge to higher levels. It remains pivotal, but is weaker than earlier.

1.4120 held the pair now, and is a new line of support on the chart. It is followed by 1.4070, which was a swing low in the previous week.

Just above the round number of 1.40, we find very important support at 1.4030 – this is a very distinctive line, as seen in the graph.  Lower, 1.3950 was a pivotal line when the pair traded in lower ranges and proved that it is of high importance. The fall of the pair stopped short of reaching this line.

Another significant support line is at 1.3860, which worked in both directions earlier this year.  1.3570 worked as support at the beginning of the year, and will have the same role if the Euro falls that far. The last important line is 1.3440, that is very distinctive. It was a clear border between ranges, more than once in recent years. A break below will be a very bearish sign.

I remain bearish on EUR/USD.

Greece is reaching the final test before it runs out of cash. But even if it survives this round, the plan still needs to implemented and to succeed. Given the past and the fresh “holes” in the austerity measures, there’s a lot of doubt. In the meantime, Ireland wants a relief, Italian banks are struggling and even Germany is slowing down. On the other side of the Atlantic, things aren’t much better, but at least QE2 ends, right now.

Here are some additional recommended reads for the pair:

• Gregor Horvat sees the bears coming to EUR/USD, using Elliott Wave analysis.
• Paul Quintaro says it’s “back to the greenback” as Greece burns.
• James Chen analyzes how EUR/USD has fallen to trend line support and marks the next levels to watch.
• Kathy Lien looks at what happened to EUR/USD after the first QE program ended. The situation is similar now, and this means losses for the pair.
• TheGeekKnows reviews the week and looks forward.
• Andriy Moraru provides weekly support and resistance lines for major pairs, including EUR/USD.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the  USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro to Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the  USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD to USD forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the  NZD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar
• For the Swiss Franc, see the  USD/CHF forecast.