EUR/USD is struggling to stay above the 1.36 line on Tuesday. After a decline in German CPI to start off the week, there was more bad news on Tuesday, as Eurozone CPI softened in May. This increases the likelihood of some action from the ECB at its policy meeting on Thursday. Meanwhile, Eurozone Unemployment Rate edged lower last month. In the US, it’s another quiet day, highlighted by Factory Orders.
Here is a quick update on what’s moving the pair.
- The pair was quiet in the Asian session, trading just above the 1.36 line. The euro is under pressure in the European session.
Current range: 1.3560 to 1.3650.
Further levels in both directions: 
- Below: 1.3560, 1.3515 and 1.3475 and 1.34
- Above: 1.3650, 1.37, 1.3740, 1.3785, 1.3830, 1.3865, 1.3905, 1.3964 and 1.40
- On the upside, 1.3650 is the next resistance line. The round number of 1.37 follows.
- 1.3560 continues to provide support.
EUR/USD Fundamentals
- 7:00 Spanish Unemployment Change. Estimate -112.3K. Actual -111.9K.
- 8:00 Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate. Estimate 12.7%. Actual 12.6%.
- 8:00 Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate. Estimate 12.7%. Actual 12.7%.
- 9:00 Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate. Estimate 0.7%. Actual 0.5%.
- 9:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate. Estimate 11.8%.
- 14:00 US Factory Orders. Estimate 0.6%.
- 14:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism. Estimate 46.5 points.
- All Day – US Total Vehicle Sales. Estimate 16.0M.
*All times are GMT
For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast.
EUR/USD Sentiment
- Inflation figures remain low: After Spanish and Italian inflation numbers were weak, the major inflation releases missed their estimates. On Monday, German Preliminary CPI disappointed with a second straight decline. The index came in at -0.1%, short of the estimate of +0.1%. Tuesday didn’t bring much relief, as Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate dipped to 0.5% in May, down from 0.7% a month earlier. The estimate stood at 0.7%. These weak numbers will add to the likelihood that the ECB will have to more than talk tough and actually take some action at its policy meeting on Thursday.
- Draghi prepares markets: ECB president Mario Draghi denied deflation concerns again and again, but changed his mind in the ECB conference this week. Noting that deflation was a serious threat and made it clear once again after the shock comment earlier in the month, that ECB action is imminent. A cut in interest rates seems obvious and also asset purchases, liquidity injections and heavy hints about further actions are on the cards. Any one of these moves would likely have a strong impact on EUR/USD, which has retracted somewhat since testing the 1.40 level earlier in May. Is the ECB decision already priced in? Not so fast. Join a free webinar towards the event.
- NFP buildup begins: This month, the non-farm payrolls figure is released after a full buildup of top tier figures. The manufacturing sector is in the limelight today. The employment component of the ISM report will carry more weight towards Friday’s action.
- ISM revises manufacturing data: It’s not often that a key indicator drops and magically recovers a day later. However, this was the case with ISM Manufacturing PMI. The well-respected ISM Business Survey Committee reported on Monday that the key index had softened in May, but has since corrected its reading. The index actually improved to 55.4 points in May, up from 54.9 points a month earlier. As well, Final Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing Prices improved. This points to an expanding manufacturing sector, which is good news for the recovery. We’ll get another look at manufacturing data on Tuesday with the release of Factory Orders.
- US GDP contracts: The first revision of US GDP in Q1 showed a squeeze of 1% (annualized). This was worse than expected and blamed on the harsh winter and on an inventory squeeze once again. Indicators for Q2 already look much better, with jobless claims dropping to 300K. Next week’s NFP will be closely watched.
Further reading: EUR Precariously Balanced Into End of Week
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