The US dollar continued storming the board, and even gained against the Japanese yen this time. Important US events including CB Consumer Confidence, Housing data and the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls are at the top of our list this week. Here is an outlook for the major market-movers ahead.
The European debt crisis further deteriorated with more open talk about a Greek exit, and a major Spanish region adding its begging bowl, in addition to banks. The crisis continues having an impact on all currencies. In the US, Core durable goods orders disappointed but at least Jobless claims were steady with 370,000 claims. The NFP will likely bring more attention to the world’s No. 1 economy. Let’s start:
- US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00.U.S. consumer confidence dropped unexpectedly in April to 69.2 from69.5 in March while expected to reach 69.9. the small decrease occurred amid a moderation in consumers’ short-term outlook despite improvement in current conditions assessments. This figure indicates a general optimism among consumers. A rise to 69.6 is expected now.
- US Pending Home Sales: Wednesday, 14:00. US pending home sales surged in March 4.1% from 0.4% gain in February while economists predicted a 1.2% rise. This rise signals a substantial recovery in the housing market, an industry. On a yearly basis, pending sales were up 12.8%. pending home sales is expected to remain unchanged.
- US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Thursday, 12:15. Non-farm employment change in the U.S. increased less-than-predicted in April adding 119,000 positions compared to 209,000 in the previous month. Economists anticipated a 177,000 gain. An increase to 139,000 is anticipated this time.
- US GDP (second release); Thursday, 12:30. According to the initial release, the economy expanded by 2.2% in Q1 2012, slower than 3.0% in the fourth quarter of 2011 This will likely be revised to the downside now, only 1.9%, showing that the US economy is not strong enough to drive global growth on its own.
- US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of new claims for unemployment in the U.S dropped modestly last week to 370,000 claims from372,000 in the prior week. The figure was broadly within analysts expectations. This steady score suggests hiring picked-up in May and should also reduce the unemployment rate. A small decline to 369,000 is expected this time.
- Canadian GDP: Friday, 12:30. Canadian economy unexpectedly contracted in February with a 0.2% decline compared with 0.1% gain in January and a 0.2% expected rise. This decline caused a reduction in annual growth to 1.6%. A 0.3% growth rate is anticipated now.
- US Non-Farm Employment Change: Friday, 12:30. Labor market didn’t fulfill expectations in April rising only 115,000, well below the 172,000 predicted by analysts following a 154,000 gain in March. The main expansion occurred in professional and business services, retail sales and health care but transportation and warehousing declined. An increase to 152,000 is predicted.
- US Unemployment Rate: Friday, 12:30. The US unemployment rate declined slightly to 8.1% in April from 8.2% in March, despite lower job gains. The labor force participation rate declined in April to 63.6%, indicating more people stopped looking for jobs meaning the decline in the unemployment rate was not due to job growth, but that more people left the labor force. No change is anticipated now.
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 14:00. U.S. Manufacturing ISM report increased to 54.8% in April contrary to predictions for 53.0 and following 53.4 in the previous month indicating growth in the manufacturing sector. A small drop to 54.1 is expected this time. The newly released Markit index showed a slide to 53.9 points in May. Will Markit predict the ISM figure?
*All times are GMT.
That’s it for the major events this week. Stay tuned for coverage on specific currencies
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the New Zealand Dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar
- For the Swiss Franc, see the USD/CHF forecast.