- GBP/USD price slides down ahead of the London session as the risk sentiment remains deteriorated.
- Brexit woes and the Chinese real estate crisis continue to linger, providing no room for the bulls.
- US NFP remains the key event on the day that may provide directional bias to the market.
The GBP/USD price forecast is neutral as the pair slides amid poor risk sentiment and Brexit concerns ahead of US NFP data release.
The GBP/USD pair hit an intraday low of 1.3600, down 0.14% from the day before it opened in London on Friday.
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Risk aversion catalysts from China may also have contributed to the cable pair’s recent weakness, in addition to Brexit updates and fears about the Federal Reserve.
Speaking of Brexit, the UK-France dispute over fishing rights has taken a new turn after French MP Jean-Pierre Pont said that the French government should consider repealing the Touquet Treaty that allows the UK to pass through French border checkpoints. Another BBC report states that the Vice-President of the European Commission, Maros Sefcovic, has indicated his willingness to propose “very far-reaching” changes to the Northern Ireland Protocol (NI). But policymakers in the UK need to make drastic changes, so the impasse is unlikely to be broken anytime soon.
China’s Fantasia is another real estate provider whose bonds are prohibited under Evergrande, which negatively affects risk appetite by driving the USD higher. The early signs of today’s US Nonfarm Employment (NFP) report aggravate the Fed’s problems and propping up US Treasury bond yields, indirectly supporting the dollar. According to previous estimates, NFP figures will increase by 488,000 from 235,000. The unemployment rate will decrease to 5.1% from 5.2%, as well.
US Congress has passed a bill extending the $ 408 billion debt ceiling through early December 2021, which has boosted risk sentiment earlier in the day. Likewise, there have been positive headlines regarding Sino-US relations and the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to maintain liquidity.
Following the Bank of England (BOE) policymakers’ cautious bullish comments the previous day, GBP/USD prices remained stable on Thursday amid more favorable sentiment.
During the Fed’s disaster relief efforts, traders will be looking forward to the US employment report.
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GBP/USD price technical forecast: Key SMAs to support
The GBP/USD price remains slightly positive above the key 20-period and 50-period SMAs on the 4-hour chart. However, the price is still below the horizontal resistance level of 1.3640 ahead of 200-period SMA at 1.3680. These two hurdles may keep the pound under pressure. On the flip side, 1.3600 remains key support ahead of 1.3550. The volume data shows no positive sign for the bulls.
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Saqib Iqbal
