NZD/USD Outlook – July 18-22

Another record high was seen in NZD/USD that quietly pushes upwards. Inflation data is the main event this week. Here’s an  outlook  for the events in New  Zealand, and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD

Last week New Zealand Gross Domestic Product increased by 0.8% during the first quarter following a 0.2% expansion in the fourth quarter of 2010 much better than the 0.3% anticipated and REINZ house price index also increased by 1.3% after a drop of 1.8% in the previous month indicating New Zealand has walking the path to recovery. Will this trend continue?

NZD/USD  daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

Let’s Start

1. Inflation data: Sunday 22:45. The consumers price index (CPI) increased by 0.8 % in the March quarter of 2011 led by a rise in petrol, cigarettes, tobacco, and food prices. This quarter was not directly affected by theChristchurch earthquake on 22 February 2011.
2. Visitor Arrivals: Wednesday, 22:45. The number of visitor inNew Zealand fell in May following the decrease in visitors fromJapan. Short-term visitor arrivals dropped by 0.4% to141,300 in May after 8.1% increase in the previous month. The same figure is forecasted now.
3. Credit Card Spending: Thursday, 3:00. New Zealand  Credit Card Spending presents a sluggish growth in May rising by 0.6% following 1.8% increase in the previous month indicating a slowdown in the NZ economy. Another rise is expected this time.

* All times are GMT.

NZD/USD  Technical  Analysis

The kiwi had a depressing start to the week falling sharply. But after it bounced off the 0.81 line (discussed last week), it made a huge comeback and broke to levels never seen. The new record is 0.8505.

Technical levels from top to bottom:

The new record is naturally the final frontier, at least in charted territory. In uncharted territory, 0.86 is probably the next line. Below, 0.8410 is a minor pivotal line. It’s closely followed by 0.8380, which is already a stronger line separating ranges.

0.83 became more distinctive two weeks ago, by separating ranges (like the previous line), and remains of high importance. 0.8240 proved to be an important line of support in the past two weeks or so.

The 81 line, followed by 0.8080 also provided resistance in the past, but is now support. once again. Although it is weaker now, it can be tested if the pair falls below the aforementioned 0.8240..

The previous post crisis high of 0.7975 remains an important line, remaining very distinctive, separating ranges. The importance of this line was seen as the pair bounced off it.

100 pips lower, we meet 0.7875, which was support in 2010, and will be a line of support on a fall of the pair.  0.7825 is important support after capping the pair at the beginning of the year, and working as support twice more recently. It’s somewhat weaker now.

I am bullish on NZD/USD.

The economy in New Zealand has definitely recovered from the earthquakes, and is at full speed. The encouraging figures seen from China and also Australia, show that this region is doing much better than the US and Europe, giving the kiwi more room to rise, despite the dismissal of QE3 in the US.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the  USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro to Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the  USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD to USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar
• For the Swiss Franc, see the  USD/CHF forecast.