USD/JPY fundamental mover
Japanese releases were all tier-2 last week. The current account surplus widened to 1.05 trillion, up from 0.82 trillion. This marked its highest level in four months.
In the US, consumer inflation was unchanged at 0.6% in July. The core reading improved to 0.6%, up from 0.2% beforehand. There was good news on the employment front, as unemployment claims fell to 963 thousand, down from 1.186 million. This marked the first time that new claims have fallen below the 1-million mark since mid-March, before the spread of Covid-19. Retail sales reports were mixed. The core reading came in at 1.9%, above the estimate of 1.3%. However, the headline read posted a gain of 1.2%, shy of the estimate of 2.0%.
Key news updates for USD/JPY
Updates:
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
109.73 (mentioned last week) is protecting the 110 level, which has psychological significance.
108.30 has provided resistance since early June.
107.22 is next.
106.05 is providing support.
105.13 is next.
104.29 has some breathing room in support.
103.52 is the final support line for now.
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USD/JPY Daily Chart
USD/JPY Sentiment
I remain neutral on USD/JPY
Both the US dollar and the Japanese yen are safe-haven assets, but investors have shown a surprising sentiment towards riskier currencies, despite the Covid-19 pandemic. If this trend continues, it could be a quiet week for the pair.
Further reading:
- EUR/USD forecast – for everything related to the euro.
- GBP/USD forecast – Pound/dollar projections.
- AUD/USD forecast – analysis for the Aussie dollar.
- USD/CAD forecast – Canadian dollar predictions.
- Forex+ weekly forecast – Outlook for the major events of the week.
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