USD/JPY Forecast July 20-24 – Sleepy yen remains rangebound

Updated: 19 Jul. 2020 | 11:16

Dollar/yen was almost unchanged last week, as the pair closed at the 107 line. On the fundamental front, the Bank of Japan will release the minutes of its June policy meeting.

USD/JPY fundamental mover

Japan’s manufacturing sector continues to struggle. Industrial production fell by 8.9%, after a decline of 9.8% beforehand. As expected, the Bank of Japan maintained the policy balance rate unchanged at -0.10%. The bank’s economic forecasts were dismal, but USD/JPY didn’t show much reaction.

In the US, industrial production jumped 5.4% in June, its largest monthly gain since 1959. Retail sales rose by 7.5%, while the core reading climbed by 7.3%. Both indicators beat the forecast of 5.0%. New unemployment claims dipped slightly to 1.3 million, but the total number of claims is above 32 million, as the employment situation remains grim. Finally, consumer confidence became more pessimistic, as UoM Consumer Sentiment fell to 73.2 in July, down from 78.9 beforehand.

See all the main events in the Forex Weekly Outlook

Key news updates for USD/JPY

Updates:

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

110.63 has been a resistance line since late March.

109.73 (mentioned last week) is protecting the 110 level, which has psychological significance.

108.73 has provided support since early June. 108.26 is next.

107.17 remains relevant as USD/JPY continues to trade close to this line. Currently, it is a weak resistance line.

105.98 has held in support since mid-March.

104.65 has provided support since March.

The round number of 104 is next. It is the final support line for now.

USD/JPY Daily Chart

USD/JPY Sentiment

I am neutral on USD/JPY

The Japanese yen has not veered far from the 107 line in the month of July, and this lack of significant movement could continue, barring some spectacular development.

We could see the lack of direction continue for the pair.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer. Kenny's Google Profile

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