EUR/USD Feb. 24 – Falling After Failed Breakout Attempt

EUR/USD failed to settle above critical resistance and its losing ground rather fast. Will it fall more or make another breakout attempt? Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and community trends.

EUR/USD Technicals

• Asian session:  Euro/Dollar jumped traded high in the Asian session, but couldn’t stay above 1.3760.
• Current range – 1.37 – 1.3760.

• Further levels in both directions: Below 1.37, 1.3610, 1.35, 1.3440, 1.3334, 1.3267, 1.3180, 1.3080, 1.2970.
• Above: 1.37, 1.3760, 1.3830,  1.3950, 1.4030, 1.4160 and 1.4230.
• 1.3440 is important support below – just proved itself last week – EUR/USD escaped it once again.
• The  failure  to conquer the critical 1.3760 a few weeks ago was a bearish sign. We just saw a repeat of this scenario.

Euro/Dollar falling down towards 1.37- click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals –

• 7:00 German Final GDP. Exp. +0.4%. Actual +0.4%.
• 13:30 US Unemployment Claims. Exp. 403K.
• 13:30 US Durable Goods Orders. Exp. +2.5%. Core Durable Goods Orders exp. 0.4%.
• 15:00 US New Home Sales. Exp. 330K.

* All times are GMT.

For more events later in the week, see the  EUR/USD forecast

EUR/USD Sentiment

• The price of oil continues to surge as the Libyan civil war rages, and there is still fear of contagion to other oil-producing mid-East countries.
• The hawkish comment by ECB members, Mersch and Smaghi about raising the rates continue to boost the Euro, despite the fact that inflation is “imported” – not a result of domestic pressures.
• A drop of jobless claims under 400K once again can help the US dollar.
• Irish debt is a big burden: There are growing talks of a default in Ireland. Opposition party in Ireland, Fine Gael,  wants a haircut for senior bondholders. Now they have a precedent of a  default in Denmark to rely on. The current government left this issue for the next government. Elections are held on Friday, February 25th.
• A bailout for Portugal is getting closer as bond yields are rising and becoming unsustainable again.

Currensee Community: 59% are long , 41% are short. These are 1383 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.