NZD/USD Outlook – August 15-19

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The New Zealand dollar suffered from the global turmoil and traded lower, in an unusually choppy manner. Producer price index is the major event this week. Here’s an outlook for the events in New Zealand, and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD

Last week small drops in Business NZ Manufacturing Index decreasing to 53.2 from 54.3  and REINZ house price index sliding 0.6% after 1.3% gain reflecting a slow week for the NZ economy.

NZD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:NZD USD Chart 15 19 2011

  1. PPI Input: Tuesday, 22:45. Producer material purchases increased more-than-expected in the first quarter to a seasonally adjusted 2.2%, from 0.9% in the prior quarter. Analysts expected PPI input to gain 0.9%  in the last quarter. 1.2% increase is expected.
  2. PPI Output: Thursday, 22:45. Producer selling prices increased by 1.7% in the first quarter of 2011, well above the 0.6% gain predicted, and beyond the 0.2% increase in the previous quarter. This reading indicates healthy market activity. An increase of 0.8% is forecasted.
  3. Credit Card Spending: Friday, 3:00. Credit card spending in New Zealand improved in June rising a seasonally adjusted 4.5 percent year-on-year,  though less than the 5.5% gain in May indicating better market conditions.

*All times are GMT.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

The kiwi started the week with a huge fall, as expected. It went as low as the previous post crisis peak of 0.7975 (discussed last week), but managed to recover and close with a more acceptable drop.

We start from a higher peak – 0.8843. It’s closely followed by 0.88 which is also distant resistance.

Below, the previous peak of 0.8675 switched positions to resistance very quickly, and is a strong line now. It is closely followed by 0.8620, which was the lower border of a temporary range. It’s a minor line.

Further support turned resistance is at 0.8580,  but managed to play in both directions during July and now as well. It is followed by 0.8410 – which turned into a very important line – capping the recovery.

0.83 became more distinctive a few weeks ago, by separating ranges (like the previous line), and remains of high importance. It managed to work in both directions just now. The kiwi eventually managed to get above this line. 0.8240 proved to be an important line of support some time ago, and worked as minor resistance.

The 81 line, followed by 0.8080 also provided resistance in the past, but are now support. once again. This region provided a cushion after the recovery move.

Below, 0.7975 was a long running peak and proved to be relevant once again as the swing low of the big fall. A drop below this line will open the road to 0.7875, followed by 0.7825.

I remain neutral on NZD/USD.

After the markets seemed to have stabilized, New Zealand’s strong fundamentals can help the currency. But with no QE in the US to push commodities higher, any move is likely to be limited.

Further reading:

Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs

About Author

Anat Dror – Senior Writer

I conceptualize, design and create multi-lingual websites. Apart from the technical work, my projects usually consist of writing content for these sites in English, French and Hebrew.

In the past, I have built, managed and marketed an e-learning center for language studies, including moderating a live community of students.

I’ve also worked as a community organizer

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